Julian Shapiro suggests to make short-term decisions using the ICE model: when facing many options needing prioritization, score each on a scale of 1-10 using three variables.

1. The positive Impact it would have if it succeeds.
2. The Confidence you have that it will succeed if you try it.
3. How Easy it would be to try it.

For each option, average its three numbers to get its ICE score. Then order all your options by their ICE scores. Options at the top of your list will have the highest expected value and should be given priority.

This is how you plan your life on the timescale of weeks or months. This is how my business decides which growth projects to pursue.

Related:

• Always work on the highest-leverage things
• Strategies for moving between projects and focus areas
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See also:

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• Earl Beede's prioritisation model

References

https://www.julian.com/blog/mental-model-examples